Lessons from Lockdown

This article was first published in the Social Issues Bulletin – Issue 53: Summer 2023.

Negligible benefit of lockdown

The evidence is now in

A recently published meta-analysis of almost 20,000 studies^[1] shows that the impact of lockdowns on Covid mortality was ‘negligible’. We were told by the now notorious Professor Neil Fergusson, who disobeyed his own lockdown advice, that a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ would be 500,000 deaths,^[2] and even with other mitigations there could be at least 250,000 deaths. Therefore, we were told, lockdowns were required to avoid anything like this from happening. Now the evidence shows that as few as 1,700 lives were saved by the lockdowns.

To put this in context, in an average week there are 11,000 deaths in England and Wales. A typical flu season accounts for around 20,000 deaths in England and Wales. Fortunately, we do not lock down for flu every year. If the negligible benefit had been known at the time, compared with the astronomical costs, no politician would have supported lockdowns. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now say categorically that lockdown was a mistake.

The costs of lockdown

But there is a more significant context than that. What about all the costs and deaths caused by lockdown?

Let’s review some of the appalling costs of lockdown:

• Effects of lockdown estimated to be killing more people than Covid.^[3]
• More than 7 million people waiting for hospital appointments.
• More cancelled cancer operations than anywhere else in Western Europe.
• Tripling of deaths among men with prostate cancer in the first year of the pandemic.
• Children with mental health problems rose from 10.1% in 2017 to 17.8% in 2022.
• Young adults with symptoms of depression doubled from 11% to 23%.
• Children losing months of education with 124,000 children who have still not returned to school.
• Court backlogs doubled to 61,000.
• Over £300 billion in public spending on lockdown created a record peacetime budget deficit and a massive increase in government debt contributing to inflation.

The biggest policy mistake of modern times

These costs are astronomical. In public policy decisions, there is always a trade-off. We could avoid over 100,000 casualties per year by reducing the speed limit to 5mph. Is that what the government should do? What about all the knock-on effects on the economy which would cost many lives?

Certainly, 1,700 lives are worth saving, but at what cost? It now looks almost certain that lockdown killed more people than it saved. In fact, a government report estimated that lockdown may cost 200,000 lives over time.^[4] The London School of Economics also stated that lockdown might result in more life-years lost than saved.^[5] If that is the case, or anything like it, then there is no case for lockdown. It was perhaps the biggest policy mistake of modern times.

We now know that Public Health England were just not interested in non-covid collateral deaths due to lockdown.^[6] So many people missed treatment or avoided going to hospital out of fear and died as a result. Professor Sebastian Lucas who worked as a consultant pathologist at St Thomas’ Hospital in London has provided examples of treatable conditions where patients were told not to go to hospital or were terrified of going to hospital and tragically died as a result.

Sweden, which uniquely was prepared to go against the almost universal groupthink by not imposing lockdown has recently been found to have had the least excess deaths in Europe during the pandemic period.^[7] Let’s remember that Professor Ferguson predicted 85,000 excess deaths in Sweden^[8] – fortunately they weren’t listening. They didn’t suffer anything like the recession that we did and none of the other additional costs.

Is anyone listening? The government inquiry into Lockdown has now begun its laborious process. I hope that it concludes lockdowns were a mistake. Any other conclusion would seem to be an insult to all those who lost their lives as a result. But there are a lot of vested interests at stake here. We shall see.

The spiritual cost of lockdown

Those are just some of the health, economic and educational costs of lockdown. This doesn’t even begin to account for the spiritual cost of criminalising gathering to worship God for the first time in centuries.

It is worth remembering that while bicycle shops and off-licences were allowed to remain open as ‘essential services’, churches were forced to close. A church could run a foodbank, but if there was a prayer meeting or prayer for someone that would have been breaking the law. The rules were draconian and totalitarian. And now we know that they did not even have the intended effect.

Christian Concern supported a group of 25 prominent church leaders that issued legal notices to the government challenging the closure of churches as a breach of human rights and of the constitution.^[9] An expert report showed how churches could operate at least as safely as supermarkets.^[10] Another expert report detailed the Biblical and historic importance of corporate worship.^[11] When the Scottish Government continued church closures longer than elsewhere, the matter finally reached court. Lord Braid ruled that the Scottish Ministers’ decision to criminalise church worship was a breach of both the constitution and human rights.

Meanwhile, most churches remained closed for many months, some for years. Inevitably, they saw declining numbers. This is a loss to them and a loss for the individuals concerned who missed the spiritual fellowship that they require. Those churches that opened as soon as possible, or remained open despite the government, saw numbers grow with many Christians hungry for true fellowship and leadership prepared to value spiritual health over physical health. After all, a gospel of health and safety is no gospel at all.

The Church of England and other churches that capitulated to fear and safety were widely seen in the culture at large as having missed an important opportunity to witness to eternal truths. In previous generations, Christians were recognised and respected for being fearless in the face of much more deadly plagues and pandemics. Actions speak louder than words. Churches refusing to gather or sing out of fear was not a good witness.

Lessons learnt?

What lessons should we learn from the dramatic experience of Covid and lockdowns? Christians should be courageous and not fearful. In many ways our nation suffered a pandemic of fear which has left many people traumatised. Our Lord reigns supreme and he is constantly working out his good purposes. We need to minister in faith, and not in fear. Christians should stand up for their rights and challenge the legality of measures that restrict basic Christian freedoms.

Christians should be very wary of draconian government controls and scare tactics when used by governments. This is how totalitarianism begins. Governments always use fear to motivate compliance with extreme measures. During the third lockdown, the Advertising Standards Authority criticised the government for spreading false information and risking scaring people with government adverts which the government subsequently withdrew.^[12] Sadly, one lesson is that government propaganda cannot always be trusted, particularly if it is fear-mongering.

Finally, when we encounter events beyond our usual experience, it is always worth looking back at church history to see what lessons can be learned from our forefathers. I wrote an article about lessons we can learn from how Spurgeon responded to a cholera epidemic that was much more deadly than Covid.^[13] I wrote another article about how faithful Christians ministered and kept their churches open in past plagues that were also far more deadly than Covid.^[14] I also wrote about how Augustine had explained why the righteous suffer with the wicked in times of calamity.^[15] Lessons from church history can inspire us to respond in faith to current times of crisis and calamity.

Civil disobedience?

On Father’s Day, my church handed out copies of John Piper’s book Risk is Right to all of the fathers. It’s a very short accessible book and a helpful reminder that although God does know the future, he has designed the world in such a way that we do not. This means that we are required to step out and take risks for God. Esther risked her life. Paul risked his life. Moses risked his life. David risked his life. Daniel, Shadrach, Meshach, Abednego, Jonah, John the Baptist, Jesus, . . . Many of these flagrantly disobeyed the ruling authorities. Did any commended person of faith in the Bible not take significant risks?

If we believe the Bible, and science too, then we can expect many more infectious diseases and plagues to come. Covid was really quite mild compared to plagues and pandemics in previous generations. How will the UK church respond to the next pandemic?

There was a strong case for civil disobedience when it came to lockdown. At the start, we did not know how dangerous this disease was. As time went on it was evident that mortality rates were nothing like what was feared. That was when the case for civil disobedience became stronger. The true church has never allowed the state to force them not to meet. Churches may themselves decide not to meet temporarily because of imminent danger, for example, but they should not just agree to enforced closure by the state. Prominent US pastor John MacArthur put out a helpful statement on why he and his elders had concluded in July 2020 that his church had a duty to remain open in the face of government restrictions.^[16] It will go down in church history as an example of how the church should respond in such times. It is worth revisiting.

Live by faith

I hope that we never face a lockdown again in this nation. I hope that the government learns the lessons it should learn. But I also hope that the church learns the lessons it needs to learn. There will be further crises and calamities. We must live by faith and not by sight and respond with the kind courage and conviction that will inspire others and lead others to eternal faith in times of peril.

^[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/04/first-lockdown-prevented-1700-deaths-landmark-study-finds/

^[2] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/terrifying-data-behind-government-coronavirus-lockdown/

^[3] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/lockdown-effects-feared-killing-people-covid/

^[4] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/

^[5] https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/a-Jan-21/Life-years

^[6] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/10/covid-lockdown-deaths-health-officials-ignored-claims/

^[7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65975154

^[8] https://www.iedm.org/the-flawed-covid-19-model-that-locked-down-canada/

^[9] https://christianconcern.com/cccases/church-lockdown/

^[10] https://christianconcern.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CC-Resource-Misc-Church-Precautions-Reopening-200614.pdf

^[11] https://christianconcern.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CC-Resource-Misc-Martin-Parsons-Expert-Statement-Churches-200623.pdf

^[12] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/21/government-discontinue-covid-ad-accusing-joggers-exercising/

^[13] https://christianconcern.com/comment/lessons-from-spurgeon-on-coronavirus/

^[14] https://christianconcern.com/comment/lessons-from-church-history-and-past-plagues/

^[15] https://christianconcern.com/comment/why-do-the-righteous-suffer-with-the-wicked-in-times-of-calamity/

^[16] https://www.gty.org/library/blog/B200723